The latest on Ukraine and Russia tensions

US Air Force F-35 fighter jets arrived at Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany Wednesday in an effort to strengthen NATO allies and show a united front to Russia.

The jets come from the 34th Fighter Squadron at Hill Air Force Base in Utah, joining a number of other aircraft that have already deployed to NATO countries.

On Monday, eight F-15Es from the 336th Fighter Squadron at Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in North Caroline arrived in Lask, Poland, while six KC-135 tankers from the 100th Aerial Refueling Wing at Mildenhall, England arrived at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

“These deployments were conducted in full coordination with host nations and NATO military authorities, and although temporary in nature, they are prudent measures to increase readiness and enhance NATOs collective defense during this period of uncertainty,” the statement from US Air Force in Europe said.

F-35A Lightning II aircraft from the 34th Fighter Squadron, 388th Fighter Wing, Hill Air Force Base, Utah, depart Vermont Air National Guard Base in South Burlington, Vermont, on February 16

The United States says that Russia has added 7,000 troops to its assemblage of forces along the Ukrainian border.

This stands in direct contrast to claims by Russia that it has actually pulled its troops back.

The allegations by the United States come Wednesday evening as a senior administration official says the increase proves that Russia’s assertion of withdrawal is “false,” and suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s apparent warming to the notion of diplomacy is merely a guise.

Wednesday’s new numbers would mean the totality of Russian forces at the border now exceeds the 150,000 figure President Biden shared on Tuesday.

In a speech from the East Room, Biden allowed that a Russian troop withdrawal would be “good,” but quickly noted he’d seen no evidence to suggest such a pullback was indeed underway.

“Our analysts indicate that they remain very much in a threatening position,” Biden said. “And the fact remains right now Russia has more than 150,000 troops encircling Ukraine and Belarus and along Ukraine’s border.”

Earlier in the week, Putin said that Russia was sending some troops back to base after the completion of training drills in Crimea, the Ukrainian territory annexed by Russia in 2014.

Leaders from Europe and the US, however, universally doubted such a claim.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance had not yet seen “any sign of de-escalation on the ground,” adding that “signs from Moscow that diplomacy should continue” were grounds for cautious optimism.

US Secretary Antony Blinken concurred, saying on Wednesday that there is “a difference between what Russia says and what it does.”

“What we’re seeing is no meaningful pullback,” Blinken added.

Watch CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh report on the increased US military and NATO presence in Poland amid the potential threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine:

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A bipartisan resolution condemning Russia’s aggression and actions towards Ukraine could get a vote on the Senate floor as soon as tomorrow, according to Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, a member of both the Senate Armed Services and Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

The resolution is being offered after talks about a bipartisan sanctions bill halted when Republican Sen. Jim Risch, ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee, introduced a Republican-only Russia sanctions bill on Tuesday.

Now there is an effort among bipartisan senators to come to an agreement on some language condemning Russia’s actions against Ukraine to show broad support among Democrats and Republicans for Ukraine while tensions remain extremely high between the two countries. The main proposal being floated is a joint resolution led by Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Sen. Rob Portman, but Risch said several proposals are being floated. 

Risch said there was a “legitimate disagreement” on the extent of sanctions proposed by Democrats and Republicans. 

“I suspect and I predict that if there’s an invasion,” of Russia into Ukraine, “my bill is going to become very, very popular,” Risch said, referring to the Russian sanctions bill he introduced on Tuesday.

More context: A group of senators are traveling to Germany on Thursday for the Munich Security Conference, where several world leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and other heads of state and ministers, will be in attendance.

Kaine believes senators traveling to the conference want to show some kind of support for Ukraine before heading overseas, which is why it’s possible the resolution could come tomorrow.

“We’ve got a bunch of colleagues going to Munich, and I suspect that they would like to have something,” Kaine said.

US stocks ended Wednesday mostly unchanged as investors remained focused on Russia-Ukraine headlines.

The market rallied from earlier lows after the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, which suggested the Fed may not raise rates as aggressively as feared.

Earlier in the day, the government reported that US retail sales rose sharply in January, rebounding from a decline in December.

Here’s how the market looked at the closing bell:

Watch a market strategist explain why geopolitical volatility could be a future buying opportunity:

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02:00 - Source: cnn

Satellite images taken over the past two days show new road construction and a tactical bridge being built across a key river in Belarus less than four miles from the Ukrainian border, amid what sources say is an ongoing buildup of Russian military forces encircling three sides of Ukrain

Satellite images taken over the past two days show new road construction and a tactical bridge being built across a key river in Belarus less than four miles from the Ukrainian border, amid what sources say is an ongoing buildup of Russian military forces encircling three sides of Ukraine.

Western intelligence and military officials are closely tracking the construction as part of the support infrastructure Russia is putting in place in advance of a potential invasion, three sources familiar with the matter told CNN.  

Both the new road construction and the bridge, across the Pripyat River in southern Belarus, are less than four miles from the border and could be used by Russian forces currently in Belarus in a drive to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. The satellite images, from Maxar and Planet Labs, show the appearance of the pontoon bridge virtually overnight on Tuesday.  

Russia is building “bridges, field hospitals, all kinds of support infrastructure,” said one source familiar with the matter. “Which is why we aren’t really taking seriously their claims of de-escalation.”

It’s unclear whether Russian forces or Belarus are constructing the bridge. Belarus is Russia’s closest international ally in the standoff and is currently hosting Russian troops and equipment as part of what Russia insists are “exercises.” Western officials assess that those forces could be used to invade Ukraine from the north, in particular, if Russia chooses to march on Kyiv.

While no concentrations of armor have been seen near the bridge, Russian forces have deployed to forward positions some 80 miles to the east — and one convoy was seen on a road leading to the area.   

According to western intelligence assessments, Russian President Vladimir Putin is positioned to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine at any time — although the US still does not believe he has made a decision yet.

Russia yesterday issued a number of conflicting signals, including announcing that some of its forces would be pulling back from the Ukrainian border. But officials have said publicly that there is no sign of de-escalation on the border and multiple sources familiar with up-to-date intelligence told CNN that Russia was still actively moving forces closer to the border on Wednesday. Some long-range artillery has been placed in firing positions, according to a senior western intelligence official and another source familiar with the matter.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres held a phone call on Wednesday evening to discuss the crisis on Ukraine’s border, during which they agreed a Russian invasion would have “catastrophic” consequences, according to a readout from Downing Street. 

“The leaders reiterated states’ responsibility to abide by their obligations under the United Nations Charter and to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of UN members,” the spokesperson said.

Johnson and Guterres also “reaffirmed the importance of all parties working in good faith to implement the Minsk Agreements,” according to the readout.  

“They agreed to continue working closely together to pursue an urgent diplomatic resolution and avert a disastrous military escalation and humanitarian crisis,” the Downing Street spokesperson added.

Britain will double the number of its troops in Estonia as part of a NATO deployment amid ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Britain’s Ministry of Defense announced in a statement Wednesday.  

“The UK is doubling the number of personnel in Estonia and sending additional equipment, including tanks and armored fighting vehicles. The troops and equipment will begin to move to Estonia today,” according to the statement.  

The announcement comes during Secretary of State for Defense Ben Wallace’s visit to Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine with North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies.  

The Royal Welsh battalion, which includes armored vehicles and personnel, will begin to arrive in Estonia in the coming week, the statement said, adding that Apache helicopters will “soon” be conducting exercises with NATO allies and partners in Eastern Europe. 

Four additional UK Typhoon jets have landed in Cyprus and will begin to patrol the skies in the region alongside NATO allies, the statement added. The UK has put 1,000 additional British personnel “at readiness in the UK to support a humanitarian response, if needed.”

The majority of the 350 Royal Marines of the 45 Commando unit committed to Poland have already arrived, the ministry said. 

Wallace stressed that “de-escalation and diplomacy remain the only path out of this situation” at the Ukraine-Russia border. 

During his meetings in Brussels on Wednesday, Wallace said Russia “needed to match its actions to its words and truly deescalate.” 

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki during the daily briefing in Washington on February 16.

The White House says the window for a potential Russian attack on Ukraine remains open and warned a fabricated pretext for an incursion could include reports like one Wednesday about mass graves in Donbas.

She said the US was not taking Russian claims of de-escalation at face value.

“There’s what Russia says and what Russia does,” Psaki said. Russian troops “remain amassed in a threatening way on the border.”

Asked by CNN’s Kaitlan Collins what a “meaningful de-escalation” would look like, Psaki did not provide specifics.

“We will know it when we see it,” she said, noting the US was seeking a “verifiable reduction of troops on the border with Ukraine” but not laying out metrics.

She repeated White House warnings of “false flag” events meant to create the pretext for an invasion and said “everyone should keep eyes open” for fake videos or reports emerging on Russian media.

Asked about a cyberattack in Ukraine that took down some government websites, Psaki said she didn’t have details on attribution for who was responsible. She said making such a determination was difficult because adversaries work to “hide their tracks” in cyberspace.

And she said the “door continues to be open for diplomacy,” though said Russian responses to US security concerns hadn’t yet been received in Washington.

“I think we are still waiting for that,” she said.

The White House dispatched two officials to Saudi Arabia this week to press the kingdom to pump more oil as fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine cause energy prices to rise, a potentiality President Biden warned about in a speech on Tuesday could get worse if Russia attacks.

National Security Council Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk and the State Department’s energy envoy, Amos Hochstein, were in Riyadh on Wednesday, a senior US official confirmed to CNN, attempting to shore up the relationship more broadly but also to lobby Saudi officials to pump more crude oil and stabilize markets.

The Saudis have been resistant to any changes in production because of their commitments to OPEC+, a consortium of oil-producing countries that includes Russia, the official said. The officials’ trip to Saudi Arabia follows a phone call between Biden and Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud last week, in which they discussed “ensuring the stability of global energy supplies,” according to a White House readout of the call.

Biden, in a speech on Tuesday, said that a Russian invasion of Ukraine was unlikely to be “painless” for Americans.

US officials have continued to claim that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen at any moment, though Biden said on Tuesday that he still sees a window for diplomacy. Given the high risk of a Russian attack, the Biden administration has been making contingency plans for months to shore up Europe’s energy supplies should a Russian invasion of Ukraine create gas shortages and roil the global economy, CNN has previously reported.

Read more here.

As bipartisan Russia sanction talks remain stalled, some senators are looking for symbolic rebukes of Russia and to show US solidarity behind Ukraine.

Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Sen. Rob Portman plan to introduce a non-binding resolution today that would condemn Russia’s behavior, Shaheen told CNN. It’s unclear when that measure would get a vote.

Some more context: Republican senators introduced their own sanctions package Tuesday after weeks of failed negotiations between bipartisan senators. Senators could not agree on whether to include sanctions that deal with the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline. 

The proposed Republican sanctions package, introduced as the Never Yielding Europe’s Territory (NYET) Act, would “mandate sanctions” on the Nord Stream 2 project “without a waiver should Russia invade,” a release about the act said.

After lawmakers failed to reach an agreement on a sanctions package or a resolution, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and GOP leader Mitch McConnell released a bipartisan statement Tuesday from Senate leaders on Russia, writing: 

CNN’s Ali Zaslav, Ted Barrett, Lauren Fox and Ellie Kaufman contributed reporting to this post.

The Pentagon confirmed that three US Navy P-8A aircraft “experienced unprofessional intercepts by Russian aircraft” last weekend in international airspace over the Mediterranean Sea, according to spokesperson Capt. Mike Kafka. 

CNN reported earlier that a aircraft had an “extremely close” encounter with the Russian military jets, according to multiple US officials directly familiar with the US military reports of the incident. The officials would not detail precisely how close the Russian aircraft came to the aircraft.

The initial reporting indicates there was a subsequent additional encounter after that between US and Russian jets.

Several of the sources indicated there is video of the incident, but the Biden administration has yet to publicly acknowledge any of the details amid rising tensions with the Russians. 

More background: It is not unusual for Russian aircraft to approach US military aircraft but the majority of the interactions are considered safe and professional by the US.

CNN also has reported that US military aircraft escorted a Russian cargo plane and fighters across an air exclusion zone in eastern Syria on Tuesday when the Russians failed to give appropriate advance notification of their flights, according to other US officials.

US officials continue to say these close and unexpected encounters risk a miscalculation that could lead to a military incident.

Oil prices bounced back to $95 a barrel on Wednesday as US and NATO officials say they see no sign of de-escalation on the ground in the Russia-Ukraine standoff.

US crude jumped as much as 3.2% to an intraday peak of $95.01 a barrel. This comes after oil prices fell sharply Tuesday after Russian announced it is withdrawing some troops following the completion of recent drills near Ukraine.

The rebound reflects lingering concerns about an invasion of Ukraine that threatens to disrupt Russia’s vast energy supplies at a time when global supply is already failing to keep up with demand.  

Some more context: US oil hit a seven-year high of $95.82 a barrel on Monday on Russia-Ukraine fears. In recent trading, oil was up 2.7% to $94.57 a barrel. Brent crude, the world benchmark, gained 2.6% to $95.75 a barrel.

The US stock market also gave up some of its sizable gains from Tuesday, with the Dow falling 225 points, or 0.6%, and the Nasdaq losing 1%.

President Joe Biden expressed skepticism on Tuesday about Russia’s claims of removing troops. Similarly, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday that despite “signs from Moscow” that diplomacy should continue, “we do not see any sign of de-escalation on the ground.”  

Yawger said those comments from Biden and NATO are renewing concern in the market about a conflict. 

“Investors justifiably believe the president of the largest democracy on the planet and the largest military alliance in the world,” instead of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Yawger said.

Natural gas is also rising sharply, with futures jumping nearly 7% to $4.60 per million BTU.

The office of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Lugansk, Ukraine on February 15.

Germany plans to leave Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) observers in Ukraine and even “stock up” staff for the OSCE mission in Ukraine in order to pursue its mission of diplomatic dialogue, said Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Wednesday.

Baerbock added that the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe is also playing an important role in preventing diplomatic misunderstandings amid tensions between Russia and Ukraine. 

“Especially in such critical moments, we need OSCE to establish transparency and prevent dangerous misunderstandings,” she continued.

“Austria and Germany are sharing the same goal: Ensuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and with this the European security architecture,” Baerbock said. “This contains the right of all people in all our countries to live free from fear of war.”

Baerbock said she welcomes Russian announcements of further negotiations and a partial withdrawal of Russian troops as a positive signal, if true.

“We will monitor closely whether these announcements will be followed by real action. It remains clear, that the plan is to de-escalate,” Baerbock added. “Peace is the superior asset in Europe. The way out of this highly dangerous situation is only possible via dialogue and confidence-building.”

A Ukrainian frontier guard stands at the check point on the border with Russia, near the city of Kharkiv, on February 16.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said today that despite “signs from Moscow” that diplomacy should continue, there was no sign of de-escalation on the ground at Russia-Ukraine border. 

“Allies welcome all the diplomatic efforts and there are signs from Moscow that the diplomacy should continue. But so far, we do not see any sign of de-escalation on the ground. No withdrawals of troops or equipment. This may of course change,” he said at a press briefing following a summit of NATO defense ministers in Brussels.  

Calling the tensions between Russia and Ukraine “the most serious security crisis in Europe in decades,” Stoltenberg said that NATO remains prepared for dialogue and that it is not too late for Russia to “step back from the brink of conflict and choose the path of peace.” 

“NATO is not a threat to Russia,” he added.   

Earlier today, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken echoed similar comments, saying that the US is not seeing evidence that Russia is pulling back troops from the border of Ukraine, despite Russian claims. 

“Unfortunately, there’s a difference between what Russia says and what it does. And what we’re seeing is no meaningful pullback,” Blinken said on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”

A high-volume cyberattack that temporarily blocked access to the websites of Ukrainian defense agencies and banks on Tuesday was “the largest [such attack] in the history of Ukraine,” but it’s too early to tell who was responsible, Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov said at a news conference Wednesday.

The so-called distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack — which throttled Ukrainian websites with phony traffic — was coordinated and well-planned, officials said. DDoS attacks often disrupt access to IT systems, but their impact can be more psychological than having any direct effect on a country’s critical infrastructure.

While down for parts of Tuesday, the websites of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces, and those of two prominent banks, were back up Wednesday, according to CNN journalists in Ukraine. The DDoS attack, however, is still ongoing, Ukrainian officials said.

The incident comes as Russia has massed an estimated 150,000 troops close to Ukraine’s border, according to US President Biden, and as US officials warn that a fresh Russian invasion could come at any time. Russia has denied it is planning to invade Ukraine.

The US government is investigating the cyberattack on Ukrainian websites, a top State Department official said Wednesday, while suggesting that Russia has a history of carrying out such hacks.

“But who is best at this, who uses this weapon all around the world? Obviously, the Kremlin,” Under Secretary for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland said on “CBS Mornings.”

She credited Ukrainian officials for responding quickly and helping the websites recover. 

Internet traffic hitting Ukrainian websites during the DDoS attack was “three orders of magnitude more than regularly observed traffic,” according to data collected by cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike. 

Ninety-nine percent of the traffic involved a type of digital request to computer servers, “indicating the attackers were attempting to overwhelm Ukrainian servers,” said Adam Meyers, cybersecurity technology company CrowdStrike’s senior vice president of intelligence.

A Ukrainian intelligence report recently obtained by CNN pointed to Russia’s effort to destabilize “Ukraine’s internal situation by using economic, energy, information, cyber, social, ethnic, and other tools.”

Ukraine has assessed that Russia and Belarus were responsible for a separate cyberattack that hit government websites last month. “As a result of a massive hacker attack on the night of January 14, 2022, the web pages of the Government of Ukraine” were shut down. The attacks were carried out by a group affiliated with the Russian and Belarusian special services,” the Ukrainian intelligence report said.

Similarities in the infrastructure used in Tuesday’s DDoS attack and the one last month suggest the incidents could be connected, Ukrainian officials said Wednesday.

CNN’s Jennifer Hansler and Kylie Atwood contributed reporting to this post.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell during a news conference on February 15, in Washington.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican from Kentucky, praised President Biden for his speech on the situation Ukraine-Russia crisis on Tuesday, saying there “was much in the President’s remarks that I appreciated.”

He continued to say, “It’s fine for President Biden to engage in good faith diplomacy provided we’re skeptical about Putin’s intentions.” 

McConnell added that the US must keep sending strong messages to Russia “verbally and with concrete actions.”

“I’m hopeful that President Biden will rise to the occasion,” he said. “As a bipartisan group of colleagues and I made clear in a joint statement yesterday, the President would have overwhelming bipartisan support to use his existing executive authorities for tough sanctions against Russia in the event of conflict.”

US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said that “our concern has not abated a single bit” as Russia continues its buildup of troops near the Ukrainian border.

There’s been “no meaningful sign of de-escalation, no meaningful Russian troop withdrawals from the borders,” Price told CNN’s Jim Sciutto on Wednesday.  

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this morning there has been “no meaningful pullback” of Russian forces, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement Tuesday that that Russia was sending some troops back to base after completing drills.

“The fact that Putin can take any number of courses were he to choose to do so, that is what gives us profound concern,” Price said.

“We know that the playbook could include everything from cyberattacks to electronic warfare to aerial bombardment to a large-scale incursion. We are prepared for every eventuality,” he added.

While it remains the “strong, strong, strong preference” to find a diplomatic solution, Price said, the Russians will need to de-escalate and “take meaningful steps that they have yet to take.” 

President Joe Biden arrives to deliver remarks on the situation with Russia and Ukraine in the East Room of the White House on February 15.

US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said President Biden has told her the administration would seek “severe, swift, immediate economic retaliation” if Russia were to invade Ukraine, amid rising tensions along the Ukrainian border.

This follows Biden’s remarks Tuesday in which he made an appeal for diplomacy to continue as the world watches to see if Russian President Vladimir Putin orders an invasion of neighboring Ukraine, but also warned that a Russian attack on Ukraine will “be met with overwhelming international condemnation.”

Raimondo also noted Wednesday that if Russia invades, “there would be disruption to the global economy, not just the US economy,” and that the Biden administration is “doing everything we can to avoid that eventuality.” 

Raimondo added that “it’s hard to know exactly how disruptive it would be to our economy,” pointing to concerns about potential increases in fuel prices. 

“We’re already starting to think about what can we do to surge capacity, working with our allies, working with companies to make sure that we are ready to increase supply if necessary,” Raimondo said in the interview.

Asked about the risks of cyberattacks and possible impact on US businesses, Raimondo stressed the Biden administration is “monitoring this every minute of every day” and “there aren’t as I sit here, you know, credible threats — though that could change, right, in five minutes.” 

Raimondo said US agencies are “hardening our own systems,” in addition to the Biden administration being in “constant communication” with private sector companies.

“It’s just this constant communication with the biggest private sector companies, with the private sector companies that run America’s infrastructure, to make sure that we have this seamless information flow, so that we’re protected but also we can react immediately if something happens,” said Raimondo. 

US stocks opened lower on Wednesday as investors continued to eye the situation in Ukraine as well as the Fed.

 At 2 p.m. ET, the Fed is set to release minutes from its January meeting that should offer new insights into the central bank’s plan to fight inflation by raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet.

Here’s what the markets looked like this morning:

Ukrainian police officers march in Independence Square in central Kyiv on February 16.

European leaders will convene tomorrow for a newly arranged face-to-face meeting in Brussels to discuss the latest Russia-Ukraine developments.

President Biden and German Chancellor Scholz are scheduled to speak this afternoon at 2:30 p.m. ET, a White House official says. 

Both leaders met at the White House earlier this month and Scholz met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Tuesday as diplomatic and de-escalation efforts continue.

US Embassy in Kyiv on February 15, 2022.

The CIA station in Kyiv has temporarily left along with the embassy, and relocated in Lviv, according to sources familiar with the matter — as would be expected, since the agency relies on the embassy backbone to operate out of in Kyiv as it does in other cities around the world.

According to two other sources familiar with the matter, the kind of work agency officers were doing in Ukraine is standard liaison partner work that has been ongoing there since at least the Obama administration. 

But the move could still make it more difficult for the CIA to collect intelligence on Russian activities inside Ukraine, at a time when the US is warily watching for signs of Russian conventional or “grayzone” warfare.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that “Russia has amassed an invasion force on the borders of Ukraine” in opening remarks of the Meetings of NATO Ministers of Defence in Brussels Wednesday. But, he said, there are signals from the Kremlin that diplomacy should continue. 

“This gives grounds for cautious optimism, however, we have not so far seen any sign of de-escalation on the ground,” Stoltenberg said.

Stoltenberg said while the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would “continue to work for the best, we must also be prepared for the worst.”

“We will do what is necessary to protect and defend all allies. We have already raised the readiness of the NATO Response Force, and allies are putting forces on standby and deploy more troops, planes and ships.”

“Today, we will consider how we should enhance our deterrence and defense posture and pursue our diplomatic efforts,” Stoltenberg said. 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that the United States is not seeing evidence that Russia is pulling back troops from the border of Ukraine, despite Russian claims. 

“Unfortunately, there’s a difference between what Russia says and what it does. And what we’re seeing is no meaningful pullback,” Blinken said on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”

Blinken reiterated that the US believes that Russia could invade neighboring Ukraine at any moment, including this week.

“We said that we were in a window of time in which the invasion could come at any time. President Putin’s put in place the capacity to act on very short notice. He could pull the trigger. He could pull it today. He could pull it tomorrow. He could pull it next week. The forces are there if he wants to renew aggression against Ukraine,” Blinken said.

Blinken underscored that the US remains committed to trying to pursue diplomacy, but said the ball is in Russia’s court. 

Multiple US officials also told CNN that there is no evidence to substantiate Russian claims of a drawdown of its troops near the Ukrainian border.

“We have not seen any credible, verifiable, or meaningful drawdown,” a Biden administration official told CNN, urging reporters to “be deeply skeptical of official Russian sources” purporting to show a withdrawal of forces.

A senior US official said the US is “not seeing any movement to support that claim” by Russia.

CNN’s Jim Sciutto and Jeremy Diamond contributed reporting to this post.

The latest Ukrainian intelligence report says that the Ukrainian government believes the current Russian troop level is not enough to effectively invade. 

The total number of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border has increased to over 148,000, including more than 126,000 ground troops, according to the report. This is in line with recent US reports about the strength of Russian forces threatening Ukraine. 

According to the new Ukrainian intelligence assessment, shared exclusively with CNN, there are currently 87 Russia battalion tactical groups on constant alert around Ukraine, 53 more than are usually based in the area. 

Recognizing that inability, the report said that “Russia focuses on destabilizing Ukraine’s internal situation,” including with the use economic and energy tools, plus cyberattacks. 

The Ukrainian intelligence report also detailed what it called a “creeping Russian occupation of Belarus,” suggesting that Russia continues to bolster its air and missile forces in the country, which borders both Russia and Ukraine. The report said Belarus is now “a full-fledged theatre of operations,” that Russia can “use to expand its aggression in Eastern Europe.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko will meet in Moscow on Friday to discuss European security and bilateral relations, the Kremlin said in a statement Wednesday. 

“On February 18, Vladimir Putin will hold talks with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko in Moscow,” according to the Kremlin. 

“It is planned to discuss issues of further development of Russian-Belarusian relations of strategic partnership and alliance, as well as topical problems of European security,” the Kremlin said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has carried out a tour of defensive preparations during a trip to mark Ukraine’s Unity Day on Wednesday.

Among the equipment he saw were new anti-tank missiles sent to Ukraine by the US and UK, as well as Stinger missiles supplied by Lithuania.

Zelensky traveled to the central Rivne region to meet commanders and troops during exercises, dubbed Blizzard 2022.

A statement from the president’s office said the exercises were designed to defeat an enemy during its “offensive actions.” Equipment involved included aircrafts and drones, air defenses and rocket launchers, the statement said.

Zelensky was accompanied on his tour by European envoys to Ukraine.

The configuration of forces in Russia’s western region will return to “standard posture” in three to four weeks, according to the Russian ambassador to Ireland, Yuriy Filatov. 

Speaking to Irish TV station RTÉ on Tuesday, Filatov said that although he couldn’t give “any figures” about Russian troop withdrawals, he could say that “within maybe three or four weeks, the configuration of the forces in the western region of Russia will return to normal standard posture.”

Russia doesn’t have a “political, military, economic or whatever other reason” to invade Ukraine, Filatov continued, adding that “the whole idea is insane.”

When asked if withdrawn Russian troops could return to the border, Filatov said: “If there is a necessity to conduct exercises, they will.” 

Some context: Russia President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that Russia was sending some troops back to base after completing drills, and that while he is open to further negotiations on the Ukraine crisis, Moscow’s security demands were an “unconditional priority.”

Russia’s claims about troop movements were met with skepticism from Western officials, who said they had seen no evidence that any partial withdrawal had begun.

US President Biden told reporters Tuesday that the US has “not yet verified the Russian military units are returning to their home bases,” saying that they “remain very much in a threatening position.”

CNN’s Ivana Kottasová, Nathan Hodge and Uliana Pavlova contributed reporting to this post. 

Pro-Russian Serviceman with a machine gun observing the front line in the dugout of the people's militia of the Luhansk People's Republic, Donbas, Ukraine on February 3

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned of the possibility of escalation by Ukrainian forces around the separatist-held regions of eastern Ukraine. 

Asked how likely such a development might be, Peskov said, “The level of danger remains high.”

“This is real. We have all witnessed that Kyiv began a military operation in Donbas, started a civil war. There have been such precedents,” he continued.

The US and its allies have warned of potential provocations or “false flag” attacks that might be orchestrated by Russia to potentially justify a military offensive against Ukraine. 

The Donbas region has been under the control of Russian-backed separatists since 2014 and is referred to by Ukraine as “temporarily occupied territories.” Russian forces are also present in the area, although the Kremlin denies it.

Peskov also used the call to welcome US President Biden’s calls for diplomacy in a White House speech on Tuesday.

Ambassadors of European countries lay roses at the Wall of Remembrance to mark a "Day of Unity" in Kyiv, on February 16. The wall contains the names and photographs of military members who died since the conflict with Russian-backed separatists began in 2014.

The embassy of the European Union in Kyiv was flying the Ukrainian flag on Wednesday, for the first time ever.

Matti Maasikas, the EU ambassador to Ukraine, said he wasn’t sure the act was strictly in line with protocol, but added these were not ordinary times. 

Maasikas told CNN the EU was standing firmly behind Ukraine and was still hoping for a peaceful solution. 

Maasikas was one of several European diplomats attending a commemorative ceremony at the Memorial Wall, a monument dedicated to those who defended Ukraine during the war that started in 2014.

He said that while the crisis involving Russia and Ukraine remains in the headlines around the world, Ukrainians themselves remain calm. 

“There is no panic. The atmosphere is resolute. Ukraine has been at war for almost eight years now,” Maasikas said.

Anka Feldhusen, the German ambassador to Ukraine, agreed. She hasn’t noticed much panic on the streets of Kyiv in recent weeks, even as the US and NATO continued to issue ever more alarming warnings about the risk of a Russian invasion.

She likened the situation to the earlier days of the Covid-19 pandemic in Kyiv. While people in countries like the United States and United Kingdom hoarded toilet paper and flour, Ukrainians stayed calm.

Feldhusen has recently found herself in hot water over a diplomatic spat between her country and Ukraine. Last month, she was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, a diplomatic step that is rarely used between allies. 

The Ukrainian government has been critical of Germany for not providing more military help to Kyiv. Berlin announced last month it would supply 5,000 military helmets to Ukraine as tensions grew with Russia — in addition to a field hospital and medical training — but no lethal weapons.

“I think our relations are on a very, very strong basis. They’re always ups and downs,“ she said. “I don’t think it’s a misunderstanding. I think that we have to work very hard in Germany to understand what we can do to help and what we can’t.”

Yulia Kesaieva contributed reporting to this post

Russia will insist that NATO publicly states it will not accept Ukraine as a member, said Konstantin Gavrilov, the head of Russia’s delegation to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, according to Russian state news agency RIA-Novosti. 

“Kyiv, in turn, must proclaim its neutral, non-aligned status, as provided for in the Declaration on State Sovereignty of Ukraine of July 16, 1990,” Gavrilov added. 

Some background: Barring Ukraine’s membership into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is one of Russia’s three key demands to the US and the NATO alliance, along with a halt to further expansion eastward of the alliance and the rollback of NATO’s military infrastructure to 1997 positions. Ukraine is committed through a constitutional amendment to NATO membership.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg listens to a question from a journalist as he arrives for a meeting of NATO defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on February 16.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says it appears Russia is continuing its military buildup on the border with Ukraine, despite Moscow’s claim it was sending some troops back to base.

Stoltenberg’s remarks come just a day after Russia announced that some troops from its southern and western military districts had begun returning to their bases following exercises, although Moscow has said that military drills will continue to be held.

Speaking ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers on Wednesday, Stoltenberg stressed that NATO remains hopeful that Russia will engage in “meaningful dialogue” and choose to pursue diplomacy rather than confrontation.

“We are closely monitoring and following what they’re doing,” Stoltenberg said. “If they really start to withdraw forces, that’s something we will welcome, but that remains to be seen.”

The secretary general noted that NATO has observed a steady increase in Russia’s military capabilities near the Ukrainian border over the last few weeks and months, with “well over 100,000” troops believed to be near the border. 

“Russia retains the capability of a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine, without any warning time,” he added.

People carry a 200 meter-long Ukrainian flag at the Olympic stadium to mark a "Day of Unity" in Kyiv on February 16.

The largest flag in Ukraine – all 200 meters (656 feet) of it – was on display at Kyiv’s Olympic stadium on Wednesday, with hundreds of people holding it up while singing the national anthem and other patriotic songs. 

They were marking Ukraine’s “Day of Unity,” an impromptu celebration declared by

President Volodymyr Zelensky.

For Serhii Kachinskyi, 45, Unity Day is all about showing the world that everyday Ukrainians like himself are not afraid of potential armed conflict. 

While he said the situation has felt the same for much of past eight years, he sees one big difference.

Serhii Kachinskyi

Wednesday’s significance: Zelensky announced that today would be a “Day of Unity” during an address to the nation on Monday, remarking with irony that his government was told Wednesday was the day Russia would invade Ukraine.

While the celebrations were muted, with some events around the country only attended by a handful of people, flags large and small were flying on many street corners.

The digital panels normally displaying commercials in Kyiv’s streets were switched to a video showing the flash flying, and some government buildings were covered with giant blue and yellow banners.

Explaining war to children: Natalya Schamych said she came to the stadium in order to be a good example for her son. Kids were not allowed at the event, but she will relay the events to him. Schamych wants her son to grow up to be a responsible citizen, so she often talks about politics and civic duty with him, she said.

“I’d like for him to stay in our country and to have a desire to leave. I want him to have respect for the country, to live and work here,” she said. 

She said her son was too young to understand the full picture, but that he knows what is going on.

Natalya Schamych said she came to the stadium to be a good example for her son.

Life goes on: Meanwhile, rushing to work in central Kyiv, 48-year-old Alim wrapped himself in a Ukrainian flag as if it was a superhero cape. He has been carrying the flag with him every day for eight years now, he told CNN.

As a Crimean Tatar, he never accepted the Russian annexation of his home region in 2014.

“It’s my civilian position. I am from Crimea, I’ve been wearing it since the occupation,” he said.

Alim, who is from Crimea, says he has been carrying his Ukrainian flag around every day for the past eight years -- ever since Russia annexed the peninsula.

Around the corner, foreign dignitaries, including the German and EU ambassadors to Ukraine, were laying flowers by the Memorial Wall dedicated to those who defended Ukraine during the war that started in 2014.

Many pinned their coats with blue and yellow ribbons to show their solidarity with Ukraine. 

For Alim though, Wednesday was just another day. Another day of wearing the flag, going about his own business.

Yulia Kesaieva contributed reporting to this post.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaks in a debate on European security and the Russian military threat against Ukraine during a plenary session at the European Parliament on February 16 in Strasbourg, France.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned of “massive human costs” should Russia invade Ukraine, but said a diplomatic solution to the crisis was still within reach.

Addressing the European Parliament plenary session on Wednesday in Strasbourg, the EU chief described the massing of Russian troops around Ukraine’s border as “the largest build-up of troops on European soil, since the darkest days of the Cold War.”

Russia on Tuesday said that some forces would be pulled back from their deployments following military drills, but NATO has not yet seen signs of any true reduction, von der Leyen said. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday that troops were returning to their bases as part of a “normal process” after the completion of military exercises.

‘Strong and united’: Von der Leyen warned that if Kremlin chooses violence then “our response will be strong and united” and “our sanctions can bite very hard and the Kremlin knows this well.”

The sanctions would likely target Nord Stream 2, a multibillion dollar gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.

Von der Leyen said Europe is on the “safe side for this winter” if Russia decides to “partially or completely disrupt gas supplies,” but energy is a major political issue in central and eastern Europe, where gas supplies from Russia play an essential role in power generation and home heating. Natural gas prices are already near record highs in Europe, and a conflict in Ukraine could bring more pain to consumers.

Von der Leyen said that going forward, the crisis has shown that Europe must diversify its energy sources so it is no longer heavily dependent on Russian gas.

“We must heavily invest in renewables,” she said.

Biden delivers remarks on the Russia-Ukraine crisis in the East Room of the White House on February 15.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it is “positive” that US President Joe Biden wants to continue talks on the Ukraine crisis.

Peskov’s comments came just hours after Biden delivered an address on the geopolitical situation playing out in eastern Europe.

Biden said there is “plenty of room for diplomacy” with Russia that could avoid a conflict in Europe and laid out areas where Washington and Moscow can continue talking.

Biden also directly appealed to Russian citizens, telling them “you are not our enemy.”

Peskov said the Kremlin welcomed those comments, but said the speech would have been more impressive if it also addressed the Ukrainian people and “called on the Ukrainian people not to shoot at each other anymore. That would be great.”

Josep Borrell speaks in a debate on European security and the Russian military threat against Ukraine during a plenary session at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on February 16.

The European Union’s top diplomat said the current geopolitical standoff between Russia, NATO and Ukraine is the “worst crisis” Europe has lived through “since the end of the Cold War.”

At an EU plenary session in Strasbourg on Wednesday, Josep Borrell said a potential Russian incursion into Ukraine would pose “a threat to the territorial integrity of a state” that “affects the direction of humankind.”

The Kremlin has denied it has plans to invade Ukraine. Russian officials said Tuesday that some units from its southern and western military districts were returning to base after completing their exercises, though major military drills will continue. 

Borrell, echoing similar sentiments from NATO and Western leaders, said that those withdrawal announcements need to be checked.

Belarus Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei gives a press conference at the National Press Centre in Minsk, Belarus, on February 16.

No Russian troops or military equipment will remain in Belarus after the two countries finish holding joint military drills together, Belarus Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei said at a news conference on Wednesday, according to state run news agency BELTA.

The Kremlin has also previously said Russian troops will be withdrawn after exercises end, without giving concrete timelines. 

The exercises, dubbed “Allied Resolve 2022,” began on February 10 and are due to end on February 20.

The drills cover a wide area in southern Belarus and feature advanced Russian equipment, including ground attack aircraft and anti-missile defenses. NATO estimates that 30,000 Russian forces are involved, in what is believed to be one of the biggest deployments since the Cold War.

In this photo taken from video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on February 16 a train with Russian armored vehicles crosses a bridge linking Russia and the Crimean peninsula.

The Russian Defense Ministry has released video showing military equipment crossing the bridge from Crimea into Russia, saying that “the echelon with military equipment of the units of the Southern Military District, moving to the point of permanent deployment, has crossed the Crimean bridge.”  

In a statement issued Wednesday, the ministry said that “units of the Southern Military District which have completed their participation in tactical exercises at the training grounds of the Crimean Peninsula, are marching to their permanent deployment points (bases) by rail.” 

The video shows a variety of armor crossing the bridge at night on railway trucks. It’s unclear where the units are headed.   

Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, in a move that drew global outrage.

“Military echelons will deliver military equipment and military personnel to the points of permanent deployment of military units. Upon arrival, the equipment will be serviced and prepared for the next stage of combat training,” the ministry said. 

The ministry said personnel had loaded armored vehicles onto railway platforms at loading stations in Crimea. It released video Tuesday that showed tanks being loaded at a railway yard in Crimea. 

Western officials have expressed skepticism about Russian announcements that some of the troops assembled close to the border with Ukraine are returning to their bases. 

On Tuesday, President Biden said: “The Russian defense minister reported today that some military units are leaving their positions near Ukraine. That would be good, but we have not yet verified that.”

Pipes stand at the receiving station of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline on February 2 near Lubmin, Germany.

US President Biden said in a speech Tuesday that while he wants diplomacy to prevail in the Ukraine-Russia crisis, the US is prepared to impose serious sanctions against Russia if it decides to invade Ukraine.

This includes not allowing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to function.

What does a $11 billion undersea pipeline between Russia and Germany have to do with Ukraine? And why is it such a big deal?

The answer has everything to do with how Europe gets its energy.

The 750-mile pipeline was completed in September but has not yet received final certification from German regulators. When up and running, it would boost deliveries of gas directly from Russia to Germany.

The US, UK, Ukraine and several EU countries have opposed the pipeline since it was announced in 2015, warning the project would increase Moscow’s influence in Europe.

Nord Stream 2 could deliver 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year. That’s more than 50% of Germany’s annual consumption and could be worth as much as $15 billion to Gazprom, the Russian state owned company that controls the pipeline, based on its average export price in 2021.

Energy is a major political issue in central and eastern Europe, where gas supplies from Russia play an essential role in power generation and home heating. Natural gas prices are already near record highs in Europe, and a conflict in Ukraine could bring more pain to consumers.

As Russia’s biggest gas customer, Germany has tried to keep Nord Stream 2 out of global politics. But the issue has become unavoidable after Russia amassed over 100,000 troops near its border with Ukraine.

There’s lots of history here.

Disputes over energy prices have plagued the relationship between Russia and Ukraine ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, with Russia cutting supplies of gas to its neighbor on a number of occasions.

Russia has in recent months denied using energy to put pressure on Europe. But the International Energy Agency has blamed Moscow for contributing to the current European gas crisis by supplying less than it could.

Nord Stream 2 could help change the balance of power in Europe when it comes to energy. At the moment, Russia needs Ukraine, because a large amount of the gas it sells to Europe flows to the rest of the continent through the country.

Read more about the pipeline here.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has declared Wednesday a “day of unity” as his country grapples with one of Europe’s most consequential geopolitical showdowns since the end of the Cold War.

Here’s what you need to know about the tensions between Russia and Ukraine:

What the Kremlin is doing with its troops

President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that Russia is sending send some troops back to base after they completed military drills near the border with Ukraine. But a statement from the Russian defense ministry was very short on specifics. Troops of Russia’s Southern and Western Military Districts, he said, had begun loading up their gear to return to their bases, but gave few specifics about where those units had been exercising, what their home stations are, or how many troops in total were heading home.  

NATO and the United States both said that while they would welcome such a drawback, the claims needed to be verified. Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also expressed skepticism regarding Moscow’s claims, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the latest intelligence was “not encouraging.”

“We have not yet verified the Russian military units are returning to their home bases. Indeed, our analysts indicate that they remain very much in a threatening position,” US President Joe Biden said.

Wall Street, however, reacted positively to the news.

Biden’s warning and way forward

In a prime time address aimed at American and Russian audiences Tuesday evening, the US President warned that a Russian invasion of Ukraine “remains distinctly possible.”

Biden has to date ruled out sending US troops to support Ukraine in a fight against Russia. One “cost” he did outline involved Nord Stream 2, the $11 billion undersea pipeline between Russia and Germany. Biden said if Moscow invades, Nord Stream 2 “won’t happen.”

But Biden also left the door open for diplomacy between the two countries.

The White House has continually warned that a Russian incursion into Ukraine could begin any day. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN’s Jake Tapper that any such action could come this week, “before the end of the Olympics.”

Russia has maintained it has no plans to invade Ukraine and does not want war.