Tug of War

Hey, it's David. I'm popping in here because there have been a ton of developments in the Middle East stemming from the war in Gaza over the last couple of days. From Israel to Beirut all the way to Tehran. CNN has been tracking all of this, and so am I. On the other podcast I host called One Thing. We just dropped an episode breaking down the latest, so I wanted you to hear it right here. But if you want to hear more, just search for CNN One Thing, wherever you're listening, and follow the show, because we'll continue to cover the news out of the Middle East, plus other big stories that are happening all over the world again, that CNN One Thing. We'll leave a link in our show notes. All right. Here's the episode.

As the war against Hamas in Gaza rages on, leaving tens of thousands of dead Palestinian men, women and children in its wake. There have been two major questions percolating outside the enclave. One. Will Israel and Hamas be able to come to an agreement that would put an end to the fighting and free the 100 plus hostages, including the 39 who Israel has confirmed dead? Two. Will conflict between Israel and Iran backed militant groups like Hezbollah tipped the region into all out war? The answer to the first question since last November has been maybe eventually the answer to the second has been not likely, but a number of huge developments over the past 48 hours could upend all of that.

Breaking news A major escalation in the Middle East, as Hamas and Iranian state media say the political leader of Hamas was killed in Tehran. So far, there's no comment from the Israeli military, but this comes just hours after the IDF said they killed a leader of Hezbollah in Beirut.

My guest is CNN senior Investigations writer Tamara Qiblawi. She's in Beirut, Lebanon. We're going to talk about what these deaths mean for Israel, for Hamas, and for the future of peace across the region from CNN, this is One Thing. I'm David Rind.

Tamara, as we speak. It's Wednesday evening, Middle East time, so things are obviously still developing by the hour here. But can you quickly take us back to Saturday, where this all seemed to sort of kick up? Like, how did we get to this moment?

Right. So what happened on Saturday is essentially the miscalculation that everyone worried about over here.

I saw a lot of things that are way too gruesome to mention out of respect for the families. And we tried to help, but it was beyond our help. There's nothing we can do.

There was a rocket strike on a football pitch in the Israeli occupied town of Masjid Shams in the Golan Heights, which killed 12 Syrian Arab children.

But one of the most devastating parts of all of this, as you see this scene frozen in time, is the fact that right behind us was safety a bomb shelter. But there simply was not enough time for these children to get inside.

Now, Israel blamed the Iran backed group Hezbollah that operates on Lebanon's border with Israel. Hezbollah, in turn, vehemently denied the claims, despite acknowledging having launched another strike, possibly the same strike on a target around 2 or 3km away. At around the same time, Israel at some point said that Hezbollah probably never meant to strike Masjid Shams, and certainly not the football pitch, because, remember, these are Syrian Arabs. They are Syrian Arabs of the Jews faith, of which there are many in Lebanon. They're a very important grouping in Lebanon. And so this is a nightmare scenario for Hezbollah in many ways, because a it has triggered a Israeli escalation. And B, very importantly, there was the potential for a domestic backlash. Now, Israel vowed a severe response against Hezbollah. And for three days, Lebanon braced for that response. I'm sitting in Beirut, where, you know, we saw a mix of people preparing for war, you know, stockpiling on food, filling up gas, and then those that just sort of took on a devil may care attitude, which is quite typical of, of this city that's seen, lots of conflict, lots of crises and where life must go on. Now the severe response ended up happening.

Breaking news in to CNN. This out of the Middle East, according to a Hezbollah run TV agency. A loud explosion has been heard in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

They struck the home of the Iran backed group's top military commander, Fatty Schuchard, in the southern suburb of, say, Beirut, which is a populous neighborhood. But it is also where Hezbollah's leadership is based. That assassination appears to have been successful. The Israeli drone, which fired three missiles, appeared to take out the top commander, as well as five stories of that building.

For other people died, including two children and two women, and over 70 people were injured. And you know, for us here in Beirut, we are waiting to see what a response might look like. And we're looking at this incident with bated breath.

'Well, yeah. So what was the calculation here for Israel? Because like, there had been this cross-border fire between Israel and Hezbollah on the northern border, between Israel and Lebanon. But this was in the city of Beirut, deep in there. So, like, why would Israel take that provocative step?

It's a very good question, David. Some might argue that the attack or the strike in most actions warranted such a strike. Some will also argue that Israel has had its patience, worn thin by nine months of confrontation on the border between Lebanon and Israel. And there is growing pressure inside Israel for a severe, and meaningful degradation of Hezbollah's capabilities. In other words, in Israel's eyes, Hezbollah has become too strong. It is too big of a threat. And there is a very strong security argument for its degradation, for a campaign that may meaningfully degrade this very powerful Iran backed group.

But I guess the question is, how do you do that without going into all out war, where, you know, tons and tons of civilians are impacted?

Well, exactly. Because the thing to know about Hezbollah is that Hezbollah is not Hamas. Hezbollah, it has a far larger arsenal than Hamas does. It has precision guided missiles. It has bombs with payloads of up to 500kg. It also enjoys the benefits of having a very wide regional network. And so therefore, a fight against Hezbollah is potentially not just a fight that embroiled Lebanon and Israel, but one that ropes and several actors in the region. So, in a way, while there is a lot of pressure inside Israel to deal with Hezbollah, there is difference between what one wishes to do, what they might want to do, what they feel that they should do, and what they can do without facing unforeseen consequences. Now, as we woke up on Wednesday morning, that possibility of a regional war, I would say, went up about ten fold.

Now we have this new chapter, this new step of directly targeting a key Hamas figure inside of Iran itself now.

On edge might be an understatement. Cannot overstate the significance of this event. Jeremy Diamond.

We woke up to the news that Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran's capital, Tehran.

So what do we know about the death of this Hamas leader inside Iran?

We know that he was killed in a, quote, airborne projectile that hit his residence, as they called it, the place in which he was staying in Tehran. As he was visiting Tehran to attend the inauguration of Iran's new president position. We know that Iran and Hamas have blamed Israel for the assassination, and Israel has so far declined to comment on the assassination. And this guy is a big deal because not only is he or was he the political leader of Hamas, he was also the face of months and months of ceasefire and hostage release negotiations. Now, what does this mean for those negotiations? What does this mean for people in Gaza who have been suffering for months and months and months under intense bombardment in the midst of a humanitarian catastrophe as a result of this war? What does this mean for the families of the hostages, who have been desperately hoping for a deal that might lead to the release of over 100 hostages who remain there? I mean, this cannot be a good day for anyone who has borne the brunt of this war and who desperately wants a ceasefire and hostage release deal to happen. Yeah.

And Israel, you know, they haven't commented on it, but other players in the region are pointing the finger at them. But why would Israel want to kill one of the main negotiators if they really do want a deal done to free the hostages like Netanyahu claims he is actually working toward?

That, I think, is the question that everyone is asking today. There are some who will say that, you know, this is proof positive that Netanyahu doesn't actually want to clinch a ceasefire deal, that he doesn't want to arrive at a diplomatic solution that could, at least temporarily, and end this war. There are others. There is a theory that is going around that Netanyahu needs a victory to put in his back pocket.

So it's like they haven't fully wiped out Hamas in Gaza and their military capabilities. But they could say, hey, look, this guy who was a big figurehead for the group, he's off the board and we can go forward with a deal now.

Yes, that is what the theory that's going around says. Now, bear in mind, Ismail Haniyeh has not stepped foot in Gaza for the entirety of this war. He is a political leader in exile. He has no bearing or very little bearing on the ground in Gaza, particularly as it pertains to the military situation in Gaza. Now, what we've seen on the ground in Gaza, in fact, is a resurgence of Hamas in areas that were not just cleared by Israeli forces, but really bombarded to, to the ground. And it's it's not a good look for Netanyahu. It's not a good look for the Israeli military, and certainly is just not a good look for the Israeli military strategy. So if you were to subscribe to this theory that this assassination may actually expedite a deal, then yes, you need at least a symbolic victory. If you were Netanyahu, you need a symbolic victory in order to clinch a deal that may end hostilities in Gaza and lead to the release of over 100 Israeli hostages.

Worth reiterating that Israel has not actually commented on this strike one way or the other, but bottom line, where does this put us in terms of a wider war that everyone has feared? Like if you're Iran, this pretty embarrassing, right? Like, this is a guy who was your guest for the inauguration, and he gets wiped out in the middle of the night. They couldn't protect him. So will they have to respond?

Iran is in a very humiliating position at the moment. They've had their warnings ignored. Not once, but twice.

The Iranian leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, saying that you killed our dear guests in our house and now you have paved the way for your harsh punishment.

Iran today looks very weak. It looks like it has no deterrence power. And the fear is Iran feels that it is in a corner and feels strongly that it must lash out in order to assert its hard power again.

Well, we'll see what happens from here tomorrow. Thank you.

Yeah. No worries. Thanks for having me, David.

One thing is a production of CNN Audio. This episode was produced by Paola Ortiz and me, David Rind. Our senior producer is Faiz Jamil. Our supervising producer is Greg Peppers. Matt Dempsey is our production manager. Dan Dzula is our technical director. And Steve Lickteig is the executive producer of CNN Audio. We get support from Haley Thomas, Alex Manasseri, Robert Mathers, John Dianora, Leni Steinhardt, Jamus Andrest, Nichole Pesaru, and Lisa Namerow. Special thanks to Nick Thompson, Wendy Brundage and Katie Hinman. We'll be back on Sunday with our regular episode. I'll talk to you then.