Editor’s Note: Laurence Tubiana, an economist, is CEO of the European Climate Foundation and was France’s Climate Change Ambassador and Special Representative for the 2015 COP21. The opinions expressed in this commentary are her own. View more opinion on CNN.
When President Donald Trump announced in June of 2017 that the US would pull out of the Paris Climate Agreement, my phone went crazy. Everyone wanted to know if this was the end of the agreement that I and countless others had worked on. Would multilateralism collapse? Was the future of the international system at a crossroads?
Three years on, my answer is the same: No. The Paris Agreement is working.
President Trump’s Rose Garden speech did set off a negative domino effect: leaders in Brazil, Mexico and Australia were among those who felt empowered to ignore the climate crisis (and their own citizens).
But did everyone else follow him out of the door? Far from it. If anything, he managed to embolden global solidarity, so perhaps as he leaves the White House – to be replaced by President-elect Joe Biden who campaigned on the importance of ambitious climate action – we should all offer him and his team thanks.
Trump leaves as the world’s biggest single market – the EU – finalizes plans for a new short-term climate target of at least 55% emission cuts and billions of dollars of investment in clean industries of the future, on the path to net zero by 2050.
He leaves as China enters a new era of climate ambition: a pledge from the world’s top polluter to pivot fast from its coal addiction and become carbon neutral by 2060.
He leaves as the UK – an historic US ally – commits to accelerate carbon cuts by 50% by 2030. Right around the time of the US’s official exit in November, Japan, South Korea, and Canada all acknowledged the age of fossil fuels is drawing to a close by coming forward with net-zero target announcements.
Yet five years on from that cold evening in Paris when I saw nearly 200 nations step up – including the US with a delegation led by John Kerry – this is no time for complacency. The period from 2010 to 2020 was the hottest period on record. Covid-19 has exposed our vulnerability to nature: the more we heat the planet and disrupt ecosystems, which causes disease-carrying animals and insects to relocate, the more vector diseases we will unleash. As 2020 draws to a close and Covid-19 vaccines mercifully come close, we can all reflect that no country is an island. Walls have limited utility against Mother Nature.
But reflecting back to five years ago, I see there has been a fundamental shift in people’s understanding and expectations – across all societies and sectors of action. There is widespread understanding that the climate crisis means net zero is the future we all have to go to. And citizens are demanding – and voting for –this change.
Next year can be the tipping point for global progress on climate change. The day after the Inauguration, January 21, will – of course – be a key stepping stone in this. A Biden White House with Kerry as climate czar and Antony Blinken leading the State Department offers new hope. While the US has been focused on internal battles, the world has moved fast. US diplomats will re-engage in a world where climate action is a political priority and an economic necessity.
Where carbon neutrality was a concept in 2015, it is now a reality. Nearly all G7 countries and 11 of the G20 have net zero commitments. Nearly two-thirds of the world’s emissions are contained by the total 127 countries considering or having adopted net zero targets. Wall Street, long a bastion of fossil fuels, is slowly waking up: over 1,500 companies worth $11.4 trillion have net zero targets. Asset owners valued at $5 trillion are targeting 1.5C portfolio alignment.
This next decade will bring a decisive shift in our understanding of the climate challenge – it is not just a question of environment, but above all, a deep economic and social challenge. The Paris Agreement and net zero commitments are a reference point for all government policies and economic actors, even in areas not explicitly covered by the agreement.
Climate and trade are now entwined. The European Union, among others, is seriously considering placing a tax on imported goods based on their carbon content, and the long-negotiated EU-Mercosur trade deal was blocked due to Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s disregard of the Paris Agreement. That was not an accident or a one-off.
The failure of President Trump to save the US coal sector – and the shocking lack of transition plans to enable many US miners to get new work – should serve as a warning to all. The global economy is shifting: climate solutions are growing fast, and costs of renewables are falling: the clean energy economy is the job market of the 2020s – but we need to design policies with the human and social aspects in mind.
Get our free weekly newsletter
As the US re-engages on climate, I expect it does so with humility and a recognition that it needs clear policies and targets. But we must also acknowledge that the playing field, and the playbook, is no longer confined to the White House, Capitol Hill or the State Department.
US cities, states, businesses, universities and communities led when their President abdicated responsibility. Nearly two-thirds of the US population, or 213 million people, are covered through efforts like We Are Still In – a coalition representing nearly 4,000 American businesses, mayors, governors, university presidents, faith leaders, tribal leaders, and cultural institutions.
Paris opened the doors – now millions of citizens are walking through them towards a cleaner, greener world. After a grim year, we head to 2021 with hope.